AVGO
Closed · Stop loss Latest rating：Buy
Entry zone
354.3 – 360.1
Near market · as of 2026-10-08
Stop
342
initial distance -4.8%
Full size
10.0%
in tranches 40% / 30% / 30%
Entry → last
359.4 → 344.3
-6.1% · -1.25R
Support / resistance
357.7 / 369.9
ATR(14) 11.6
CloseEntry zoneStopTarget 1● buys (green) / sells (red)
Triggers
- FiredFirst tranche: price enters the entry zone4.0%@ 360.1
- ArmedAdd 1: pullback holds support (confirmed at close, executed next open)3.0%@ 360.6
- ArmedAdd 2: breakout above resistance on volume, held 2 days3.0%@ 369.9
- ArmedTake profit 1: trim 1/3, stop to breakeven@ 394.2
- ArmedTake profit 2: trim another 1/3, trail the rest@ 420.3
- FiredStop: sell everything below this price@ 342
Thesis and red linesChinese only
- Business定制XPU+AI网络芯片+VMware软件；FQ3营收296亿美元，AI芯片167亿占56%，非GAAP营业利润率68%
- MoatSerDes、封装IP与最快TPU交付纪录；谷歌多年长协+6家XPU客户，护城河变宽，但客户集中与卖方融资拉低质量
- ManagementHock Tan长期并购+资本配置纪录，股息自FY2011连续增长；但FY27/28翻倍指引激进，且自称资本是最大约束
- Margin of safetyFY28共识EPS 30.4对应成本价约11.8倍，前瞻PE约18倍为算力链最低；距高点-27%，季度FCF 137亿
- Downside机械止损342.03限亏4.8%；软件+非AI半导体季收130亿为底仓；但Anthropic 420亿可转债是尾部风险
- Assumption 1FQ4(12月9日)AI半导体营收≥217亿美元，同比≥236%
- Assumption 2FQ4非GAAP营业利润率≥66%，不因XPU占比上升而下滑
- Assumption 3Alphabet、Meta 10月28日财报不下调2027年资本开支
- Red line管理层下修FY27 AI营收1150亿或FY28 2300亿指引清仓
- Red lineAnthropic或OpenAI削减/推迟XPU部署GW计划减半并复核论点
- Red line新增残值担保或可转债，客户融资敞口超一年FCF约394亿清仓
- Red line非GAAP营业利润率连续两季低于63%减至半仓
- Red line谷歌下一代TPU主份额转向MediaTek等替代供应商减仓，重估护城河
Timeline
- Exit · Stop loss3.8%@ 338
- First fill4.0%@ 359.8
- Entered pool@ 360.1
Rating historyChinese only
- Buy距止损仅 1.2%，但 Gemini 4 GA 是确定性催化剂，Forward PE 17.9 低于 NVDA 之外所有同业；守住 342 则继续持有并在 330–345 区间补仓
- Buy候补区 354.34–360.14 内；反向思考——CEO 公开谈论泡沫是治理加分不是论点破坏，股价对言论的反应（周 -4.9%）大于对定制 ASIC 积压订单的反应
- Buy候补池（入场区 354.34–360.14，止损 342.74），现价正好落在入场区下沿，前瞻 PE 18 倍为算力龙头中最低，分批建仓、仓位不超过计划的一半
- Buy维持上周评级；注意技术面仍在两条均线下方，候补区 354–360 已到位，分批而非一次性
- BuyForward PE 18.6 倍、距高点 -27%，已部分计入 OpenAI 收入下修；现价贴近入场区上沿 360.14，止损 342.74 不变，分批而非一次性
- Buy池内候补（入场 333.53–339.51，止损 321.57）维持；YTD 跑输同业、估值处于 SMA200 下方，是算力链中少数「未被充分定价」的大盘股，融资落地即为催化剂
- Buy维持——候补入场区 333.5–339.5 尚未触及，现价仍在 200 日线附近震荡；前瞻 18.7 倍是主链最便宜的，等回踩 335–340 分批，止损 321.57
Earlier rounds
| In | Out | Entry | P&L | R | Exit reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | 2026-09-03 | 372.4 | -6.8% | -1.05 | Stop loss |
| 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-28 | 366.1 | +1.6% | 0.22 | Trailing stop |
Paper portfolio executed mechanically from published rules. Not real trades, not investment advice.