Fabrinet
Closed · Stop loss Latest rating：Watch
Entry zone
464.3 – 487.3
Near market · as of 2026-10-08
Stop
452.3
initial distance -7.2%
Full size
10.0%
in tranches 40% / 30% / 30%
Entry → last
487.3 → 456.4
-7.4% · -1.03R
Support / resistance
464.3 / 636.7
ATR(14) 23.36
CloseEntry zoneStopTarget 1● buys (green) / sells (red)
Triggers
- FiredFirst tranche: price enters the entry zone4.0%@ 487.3
- FrozenAdd 1: pullback holds support (confirmed at close, executed next open)3.0%@ 470.2
- FrozenAdd 2: breakout above resistance on volume, held 2 days3.0%@ 636.7
- ArmedTake profit 1: trim 1/3, stop to breakeven@ 636.7
- ArmedTake profit 2: trim another 1/3, trail the rest@ 654.2
- FiredStop: sell everything below this price@ 452.3
Thesis and red linesChinese onlyhealth 10/10 · 2026-10-11
- Business光通信精密代工：替思科/英伟达/诺基亚/亚马逊做光模块封装与制造，毛利约12%，靠规模吃加工费
- Moat护城河是高复杂度光学封装良率+泰国大产能；数据中心营收同比+68%、占51%，在变宽，但毛利率同比-30bp
- ManagementFY26Q4营收13.16亿超指引上限、营业利润率三年最高；内部人仅持股0.26%，信息不足：缺多年指引兑现记录
- Margin of safety前瞻PE约22、P/S约3.75，净现金约8.7亿几乎无负债；较52周高点低35%，分析师目标均价734
- Downside无债务和融资风险，有资产负债表兜底；机械止损452.29，约-7.2%，单笔亏损封顶
- Assumption 1FY27Q1营收落在13.75–14.25亿指引区间内（中值同比+43%）
- Assumption 2数据中心营收同比增速保持在50%以上，占总营收≥51%
- Assumption 3季度毛利率维持≥12%，Building 10扩产不拖累利润率
- Red line季度营收低于指引下限，或下季指引同比转负清仓
- Red line数据中心营收连续两季环比下滑减半仓并复核论点
- Red line思科/英伟达/诺基亚/亚马逊任一明确转单或丢失核心项目清仓
- Red line季度毛利率跌破11%（Q4为12.2%）减仓1/3
- Red lineBuilding 10投产延期超两季，或扩产导致净现金转负暂停加仓并复核
8月财报后股价跌约20%；近7天没有新消息，FY27Q1指引13.75-14.25亿还要验证
Timeline
- Exit · Stop loss3.7%@ 451.8
- Rating change · Buy → Watch
- First fill4.0%@ 487.8
- Entered pool@ 487.3
Rating historyChinese only
- Watch光模块代工在同业大涨日反而收平，相对强弱明显落后；距 52 周高 748.89 −35%，等 200 日线收复
- Watch目标价空间大、P/S 仅 3.8 是光链里最便宜，但机构 3 个月减持 8%、距 SMA20 偏离 14%，等回踩 SMA50（约 451）再评估
- Buy板块暴跌日仅 -2.1%、周涨 8%，相对强弱最好；现价 487 刚回到 200 日线（532）下方的修复通道，分批，跌破 SMA20（423）止损
Earlier rounds
| In | Out | Entry | P&L | R | Exit reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | 2026-09-15 | 408.4 | -6.3% | -0.79 | Stop loss |
Paper portfolio executed mechanically from published rules. Not real trades, not investment advice.